Progressive Breakfast: White House (Finally) Considering Another Stimulus?, Campaign for America’s Future, September 3, 2010, by Terrance Heath, used with permission, quoted verbatim:

White House (Finally) Considering Emergency Stimulus

Politico Reports that the White House is considering an emergency economic stimulus: “The Obama administration is mulling a raft of emergency fixes to stimulate the economy before the midterms, including an extension of the research and development tax credit and new infrastructure spending, according to several people familiar with the situation. Administration officials have been huddling almost continuously during the past week, brainstorming for ideas that would boost employment without hiking the massive federal deficit – with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner rushing to the West Wing for further consultations late Thursday. The White House press office on Thursday refused to say how much a financial package might be, other than to say it won’t be a “second stimulus.” But the administration will have a tough time selling nearly any package to terrified, Obama-phobic Hill Democrats who increasingly blame the president – and his ambitious, expensive legislative agenda – for their dismal prospects this November.”

It’s (Still) The Economy, Stupid

Bernanke tells the Financial Crisis Commission that he had no options to stop Lehman’s collapse: “Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told a panel examining the U.S. financial crisis that he had no options to prevent Lehman Brothers’ failure in September 2008 even though he knew its downfall would be “catastrophic” to the financial system and economy. The Lehman failure set off severe market turmoil, spurring debate about whether the government should have done more at the time to halt the investment bank’s collapse. Speaking to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission on Thursday, Mr. Bernanke said legal and practical considerations prevented taking action, even though ‘I never at any time wavered in my view that we should do absolutely everything possible to prevent the  failure of Lehman.’ The Democratic chairman of the 10-member panel, Phil Angelides, pressed Mr. Bernanke on the move, again calling it a ‘conscious policy decision,’ as he did during the commission’s hearing on Wednesday, citing comments from other government officials.”

Dean Baker considers the latest advice from the IMF, and wonders why these people still have jobs: “If the boys and girls at the IMF can learn a little economics, they would discover that we can run a deficit that is pretty much as large as we want in a period of high unemployment like the present. This does not have to create a debt burden because the Fed can just buy and hold the debt. This way the interest on the debt is paid to the Fed, which is then refunded to the Treasury. If we are lucky this process will generate a little inflation which will lower the real interest rate and reduce the debt burden on households and the government. If they have trouble with the theory, they can see how this works in practice. There is a small island nation where the central bank has bought an amount of debt that is almost equal to its GDP. It’s called “Japan.” Its interest burden is less than 2 percent of GDP and the interest rate on long-term debt is well under 2.0 percent in spite of having a debt to GDP ratio of 220 percent. It is incredible that IMF economists still have jobs. It is even more incredible that anyone in a policy position would waste their time listening to them.”

Ruth Marcus wants us to get shed of the word “shed”: “How did shedding migrate from shaggy dogs to job loss? The Oxford English Dictionary cites The Economist of March 1975, “the industry shed about 100,000 of its workforce.” In the last three months alone, a computer search of news reports shows 2,116 uses of the term in connection with jobs, from Ireland to Fiji. You can imagine how the term took hold. Financial writers became bored with saying the economy lost jobs. Shed is evocative. Shed worked for copy editors trying to cram the news into a headline only a few columns wide. But what might have been compactly colorful is now unnecessarily insensitive—not to mention trite. Lost is a better four-letter word. Even the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the official tallier of the nation’s joblessness, stoops to shed.”

As the summer comes to an end, Liz Schuler explains what a jobless summer means for young people: “So, what does this mean beyond a bunch of teenagers without gas money, a few new video games or an outfit their parents won’t finance? Plenty. A May report in the National Journal described the job plight of today’s young workers as a broken escalator. Instead of young people getting on at the bottom and smoothly traveling to the top throughout their careers, workers already near the top are losing jobs and going backwards, nudging out young people trying to climb on. Older workers who can’t afford to retire aren’t stepping off the escalator to make room for a new generation. And with jobs still disappearing, the escalator has all but stalled. That’s what we see in the teen jobless rate. Teenagers are competing with jobless adults for low-end, entry-level positions. This is especially true where state and local budget crises have destroyed summer jobs programs for teens.”

Peter Boone and Simon Johnson diagnose the problems of the Irish economy and the implications for the global economy: “Ireland, simply put, appears insolvent under plausible scenarios with current policies. The idea that Ireland, Greece or Portugal can cut spending and grow out of overvalued exchange rates with still large budget deficits, while servicing all their debts and building more debt, is proving — not surprisingly — wrong. Such policies leave nations burdened with large debt overhangs that effectively tax businesses and borrowers — because interest rates must stay high to reflect risk. Investors must wonder whether businesses and homeowners can afford these higher interest rates, so banks and investors cut credit lines and reduce lending. This strangles economies, even when the fiscal authorities take tough steps needed to cut deficits.”

Slate’s Daniel Gross writes that the U.S. auto industry is smaller now, but healthier: “With Ford’s restructuring, and the bankruptcies of General Motors and Chrysler, the U.S. auto industry has shrunk and cut costs to the point at which it can make money on a smaller, more realistic number of sales. So far this year, auto sales have risen in spite of tighter credit, an absence of artificial government support and slack overall demand. They’re being spurred by the demand that arises naturally from people who need and want to replace cars—not by the demand that arises artificially when lenders, dealers, manufacturers, and the government offer bribes. In large measure, the activity in the car market is mimicking that of the overall economy, one in which retail sales are rising even as credit card use declines and savings increase. Of course, it’s possible that vehicle sales will fall off a cliff and help lead the U.S. economy back into recession. But the data suggest that the industry is in a pretty decent place, especially considering where it has been. It may be years before the electric car becomes popular, but in the meantime, gasoline-powered cars may have entered an era of sustainable consumption.”

Reconsidering Iraq

WaPo’s Matt Miller admits to his Iraq mistake: “My fellow Americans: I’m a pundit, not a president, but since it’s a moment for taking stock of America’s role in Iraq, I want to remind you that I blew it. …I supported the war in 2003 because I thought Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. …Still, I’m torn. I can’t help thinking that, 100 years from now, America’s readiness to send its brave youth half a world away to topple a heinous dictator and then flush him out of a hole will be seen as noble. And not just about oil. For better or worse, I lack the moral clarity and strategic certainty of the war’s ardent supporters or foes. Instead, in retrospect, invading Iraq strikes me as a bad decision that the United States has had no choice but to make the best of. Our troops have performed remarkably. Whether they’ve been well served by their political leaders — or their political pundits — is another matter.”

Oil & Water in the Gulf

BP reports that the cost of the spill as hit $8 billion, WSJ: “Oil major BP PLC said Friday it has spent around $8 billion to date in response to the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and expects to resume its relief-well drilling shortly. The sum includes the cost of the spill response; containment; relief-well drilling; the “static kill” operation of providing mud and cementing; grants to the Gulf states; compensation claims paid; and federal costs. No new oil has flowed into the Gulf of Mexico from the Macondo well since July 15, the company said in a statement. BP said individuals and businesses had submitted more than 42,000 claims since the claims processing was transferred to the Gulf Coast Claims Facility on Aug. 23. They relate to compensation sought for damages resulting from an explosion in April on the Deepwater Horizon rig, which caused the U.S.’s largest offshore oil spill. BP has made 127,000 claims payments, totaling about $399 million so far.”

BP also says that limits on drilling are hampering oil spill payouts: “BP is warning Congress that if lawmakers pass legislation that bars the company from getting new offshore drilling permits, it may not have the money to pay for all the damages caused by its oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The company says a ban would also imperil the ambitious Gulf Coast restoration efforts that officials want the company to voluntarily support. BP executives insist that they have not backed away from their commitment to the White House to set aside $20 billion in an escrow fund over the next four years to pay damage claims and government penalties stemming from the April 20 explosion of the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig. The explosion killed 11 workers and spewed millions of barrels of oil into the gulf.”

BP has removed the the cap on the leaky remains of the Deepwater rig: “The Obama administration’s pointman on the Deepwater Horizon oil catastrophe Thursday evening announced that BP successfully removed a containment cap that had stopped crude oil from spewing into the Gulf of Mexico nearly two months ago and is expected to remove the well’s dysfuntional blowout preventer later Thursday. ‘Under the direction of the federal science team and U.S. government engineers, BP has completed the capping stack removal procedure _ an important step in the process to remove and preserve the damaged BOP,’ Retired Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen said in statement, using the common abbreviation for the blowout preventer. ‘This procedure was undertaken in accordance with specific conditions I set forth in a directive authorizing the capping stack removal and BOP replacement last week. BP will continue to follow these required conditions for the BOP removal procedure, which is expected to commence this evening. I will continue to provide updates as necessary.’”

Another fire on an offshore oil rig in the Gulf may delay lifting the ban on drilling: “The fire on a Mariner Energy oil and gas platform in shallow waters of the U.S. Gulf on Thursday was a major setback for companies hoping for an early end to the government’s drilling moratorium and raised more questions about the safety of offshore drilling. ‘This explosion will make it less likely that the moratorium on offshore drilling will be lifted,’ said Rick Muller, senior analyst for Energy Security Analysis Inc in Boston. The United States is still reeling from the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Interior Department officials declined to comment on whether the Mariner accident would prompt Interior Secretary Ken Salazar to consider expanding the current deepwater drilling moratorium to shallow waters. Such a action would be a blow to the oil industry, which has complained that the department has been too slow to approve permits for shallow water drilling since the Gulf oil spill. The Interior Department imposed a six-month halt on exploratory deepwater drilling in late May after an explosion on April 20 left a well spewing crude into the Gulf.”

Hazing Arizona

Newsweeks Eve Conant reports that the past 24 hours have been rough on Arizona politicians: “It started with Brewer, whose opening statement in last night’s debate with gubernatorial contenders, including Attorney General Terry Goddard, was painful to watch. Whether it was stage fright or just the result of a really bad day is hard to know, but Brewer, known for her brash statements, found herself struggling for words and appeared ill prepared. …Arizona’s other leading tough talker, Sheriff Joe Arpaio, is also out of his comfort zone, and this case—his ongoing dispute with the federal government—could be a lot more serious. He told reporters today that he just needed more time to comply with the feds, who are investigating allegations that his department discriminates against Hispanics. The Justice Department today said it was suing the sheriff for failing—for more than a year—to turn over records as part of that investigation.”

AZ Gov. Jan Brewer stumbled through her first debate: “Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer stumbled out of the gate during her opening statement in the first and potentially only debate in the state’s race for governor Wednesday night. Brewer, who has gained national notoriety for signing into law the country’s toughest provisions for illegal immigrants, awkwardly paused twice during the opening statement of the Clean Elections Debate broadcast on the state’s PBS affiliate. ‘I have … done so much and I just cannot believe that we have changed everything since I’ve become your governor in the last 600 days. Arizona has been brought back from its abyss,’ Brewer said, after appearing to lose her train of thought. Then, after saying, ‘We have cut the budget, we have balanced the budget and we are moving forward. We have done everything that we could possibly do,’ the governor paused for 10 seconds — an eternity in a live televised debate — before looking down at her notes. ‘We have … did what was right for Arizona. I will tell you that we have really did the best that anyone could do,’ she said, visibly flustered.

After her debate debacle, AZ Gov. Jan Brewer ran away from reporters questions about her bogus claims of beheaded bodies in the AZ desert: “Later, in an exchange about the economy, her opponent, Attorney General Terry Goddard, pointed out that Brewer’s fearmongering about violence in Arizona did not do great things for the state’s financial prospects. He then called on Brewer to recant her totally made-up claim that illegal immigrants were running around beheading people in the Arizona desert. Naturally, Brewer evaded the question. Afterwards some reporters had the gall to continue the line of questioning, asking Brewer if she still stood by her completely made up story. She was clearly too flustered to dissemble or lie, so she just ran away.”

More bad news for Brewer. News reports from Arizona say that her campaign has ties to private prisons housing illegal immigrants: “Gov. Jan Brewer’s campaign chairman and policy adviser is also a lobbyist for the largest private prison company in the country.

Chuck Coughlin is one of two people in the Brewer administration with ties to Corrections Corporation of America. The other administration member is communications director Paul Senseman, a former CCA lobbyist. His wife still lobbies for the company.

According to campaign finance records, CCA executives and employees contributed more than $1,000 to the governor’s re-election campaign. The company’s political action committee and its lobbyists contributed another $60,000 to Brewer’s top legislative priority, Proposition 100, a sales tax to help avoid budget cuts to education. Caroline Isaacs from the American Friends Service Committee, which advocates for social justice issues, said the money is evidence of influence the company has on the governor. …Corrections Corporation of America holds the contract with Immigration and Customs Enforcement to lock up illegal immigrants picked up in Arizona. Tough immigration laws such as Arizona’s SB 1070 could send thousands of new bodies its way, and millions of dollars.”

The Justice Department is suing Maricopa County Sherrif Joe Arpia over a bias investigation: “The Justice Department filed a lawsuit on Thursday against Sheriff Joe Arpaio of Maricopa County for not cooperating with an investigation into whether his department was systematically violating the rights of Hispanics. Obama administration officials called the suit the first time in 30 years that the federal government had to sue to compel a law enforcement agency to cooperate with an investigation concerning Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. …The Justice Department issued 51 requests for documents, most of which Sheriff Arpaio’s department ignored, as well as asking for tours of department facilities and interviews with commanders, staff members and inmates. Sheriff Arpaio, who has denied that he engages in racial profiling, has remained defiant of the government’s investigation. His lawyers have repeatedly refused to provide the documents sought by the Justice Department or provide unfettered access to its facilities.”

Politico’s Ben Smith says Arizona Governor’s debate performance is a poor reflection: “Arizona Governor Jan Brewer’s opening statement in last night’s debate reflects either an amazing lack of preparation, or sheer panic.”

Breakfast Sides

A new survey says employers are passing health care costs on to employees: “Score one for the nation’s employers. On average, the total cost of a family health insurance policy rose just 3 percent last year, to $13,770 in annual premiums, according to a survey of employer health benefits released on Thursday by the Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonprofit research group. (See updated article.) But the news was much better for employers than their workers, according to the survey, which is conducted yearly by Kaiser with the Health Research and Educational Trust, an organization affiliated with the American Hospital Association. Instead of sharing the pain, as they have generally done in the past, employers chose to keep their costs steady by passing the higher costs onto workers. As a result, the employee contribution toward family coverage rose an average of 14 percent, or almost $500, from what employees paid last year. Workers are now paying nearly $4,000 a year for a family policy, a jump of 47 percent since 2005. Wages have increased by just 18 percent during that time, according to Kaiser. It included a chart detailing the changes over the last five years.”

Michael Scott Moore ponders what it means to be liberal: “Social liberals in America have been tarred by economic liberals (“conservatives”) for being so illiberal about free markets, while true social conservatives resent them for being morally liberal on the one hand, or over-liberal with a tax dollar on the other. Economic liberals in Europe, meanwhile, rarely charge ahead on social justice, because by calling themselves “liberal” they don’t necessarily mean minorities should have equal rights. It’s the economic wing of liberalism that the last few years of financial trouble have bruised so badly. Free markets have gone out of style. (Never mind whether an opaque gambling market for complex derivatives with no real use to the public should be called “free,” if most participants can hardly grasp what they’re doing.) Europeans relate market liberalism to the “Anglo-Saxon” economic model. But that’s another term that slithers around what it means.”

John Dickerson wonders what the president will say to excite Democrats about this campaign season: “President Obama has been slowly turning up his political rhetoric for months. He’s made broad attacks on Republicans and taken specific shots at people like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. He hasn’t turned the dial up to 11 though—yet. Before his vacation, he warned Republicans he’s going to start. ‘They’ve forgotten I know how to politick pretty good,’ he said before leaving for vacation. He’s likely to start Monday in Milwaukee, Wisc., at a Labor Day rally. What will the new pitch sound like? Will Obama and his aides fully let go of worries about damaging his post-partisan brand? More important, will the president be effective at rallying Democrats to the polls with more partisan rhetoric? Obama clearly enjoys giving a political speech, but his circumstances have changed since he last gave so many good ones. During the 2008 campaign, he was derided as all pretty words and no substance. Now he faces the opposite problem: He’s pushed and passed a heap of big, fibrous legislation but gets criticism (sometimes from himself) for not being very good at communicating.”

The EPA will issue more rules on greenhouse gas emissions: “The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency will roll out more regulations on greenhouse gases and other pollution to help fight climate change, but they will not be as strong as action by Congress, a senior administration official said. The agency ‘has a huge role to play in continuing the work to move from where we are now to lower carbon emissions’, said the official, who did not want to be identified as the EPA policies are still being formed. President Barack Obama, looking to take the lead in global talks on greenhouse gas emissions, has long warned that the EPA would take steps to regulate emissions if Congress failed to pass a climate bill. The Senate has all but ruled out moving on greenhouse gases this year, even though the House of Representatives passed a bill last year. In late July, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid stripped climate provisions out of an energy bill, saying he could not get one Republican vote for them.”

Terrance Heath is the Online Producer at Campaign for America’s Future. Prior to his current position he worked as a Blogging and Social Media Consultant for a number of organizations and agencies, as an outgrowth of his work as Blogmaster for EchoDitto, Inc. He stumbled into blogging and social media after starting his own blog, The Republic of T., but cut his teeth as an activist working on LGBT equality and HIV/AIDS issues. In that capacity he worked for the Human Rights Campaign and the National Minority AIDS Council. Terrance has kindly allowed Evans Liberal Politics to publish his works on an ongoing basis. He sums himself up: Black. Gay. Father. Vegetarian. Buddhist. Liberal.

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The Cry for Democratic Moral Leadership and Effective Communication, Truthout OpEd, September 2, 2010, by George Lakeoff, quoted verbatim:

If you have not read Drew Westin’s outstanding piece “What Created the Populist Explosion and How Democrats Can Avoid the Shrapnel in November” on The Huffington Post, AlterNet, and other venues, read it immediately. Westin states as eloquently and forcefully as anyone what he, I, and other progressives have been saying from the beginning of the Obama administration. I agree fully with everything he says. But …

Westin’s piece is incomplete in crucial ways. His piece can be read as saying that this election is about kitchen table economics (right) and only kitchen table economics (wrong).

"All Politics Is Moral"

This election is about more than just jobs and mortgages and adequate health care. All politics is moral. All political leaders say to do what they propose because it is right. No political leaders say to do what they say because it is wrong. Morality is behind everything in politics – and progressives and conservatives have different moral systems.

In the conservative moral system, the highest value is preserving and extending the moral system itself. That is why they keep saying no to Obama’s proposals, even voting against their own ideas when Obama accepts them. To give Obama any victory at all would be a blow to their moral system. Their moral system requires non-cooperation. That is a major thing the Obama administration has not understood.

The conservatives understand the centrality of morality. They attacked the Obama health care plan as immoral, violating the moral principles of freedom (“government takeover”) and reverence for life (“death panels”). The Obama administration made a policy case, not a moral case. The conservatives have characterized the bailouts as thievery and Obama’s ties to Wall Street as immoral – as being in bed with the thieves. The attacks on government are seen as moral attacks, with government seen as taking money out of working people’s pockets and giving it to people who don’t deserve it. Whether it is the birthers, or the anti-Muslims, or the anti-immigrants or the pro-lifers, the attack is a moral attack. The Tea Party cry is moral – for “freedom” (see my book “Whose Freedom?”), for God, for patriotism. Even jobless benefits are seen as giving money to people who are not working and don’t deserve it. Even Social Security that workers have earned, that are deferred payments for work, are seen as undeserving people “sucking on the tits of the government.”

The moral case is not answered just by good policy that will help people who need help – as Westin proposed. The good policies – extending unemployment benefits, help to small businesses, help for teachers and firemen, limits on credit card rates, restrictions on rate increases and service reductions by HMO’s – in themselves fit a progressive moral system, but don’t in themselves make a case for progressive moral leadership.

Why are so many people about to vote against their interests? The Republicans are not offering kitchen table benefits. When people are voting against their interests, more interest-based arguments don’t help.

Westin’s discussion of “the center” and of populism in general, misses what is crucial in this election. There is no one center. Instead, a considerable number of Americans (perhaps as many as 15 to 20 percent) are conservative in some respects and progressive in other respects. The have both moral systems and apply them to different issues – in all kinds of ways. You can be conservative on economics and progressive on social issues, or conservative on foreign policy and progressive on domestic issues and so on – in all sorts of combinations.

Neuroscience 101, which Westin correctly invokes, tells us that in the brains of such voters, the two incompatible systems inhibit each other, that strengthening one weakens the other and that the stronger one can have its influence spread to other issues. The “swing voters” are really “swing thinkers.” And it is language – moral language, not policy language, heard over and over – that strengthens one political moral system over the other and determines how people vote. The Democrats need to reach the swing thinkers – the people who are moral conservatives on some issues and moral progressives on others – and strengthen their progressive moral views. The kitchen table arguments must become moral arguments as well – arguments about freedom, life, fairness and the most central of American values.

What are those values? They are the values that won the 2008 election for Barack Obama – and they were not just hope and change. Candidate Obama made the case that American is, and has always been, fundamentally about Americans caring about each other and acting responsibly on that care. Empathy, which he proclaimed over and over was the most important thing his mother taught him and is the basis of our form of government. Responsibility is both personal and social. “I am my brother’s keeper,” as he said over and over in the campaign. And thirdly, excellence – doing everything as well as we can, individually and as a nation. That is why we have life, freedom, fairness, equality – and quality – as fundamental values.

We haven’t heard that kind of moral leadership since the inauguration. Americans are longing for it. And those moral values really do motivate every kitchen table policy!

It is morality, not just the right policy, that excites voters, that moves them to action, that creates movements. Legislative action must come from a moral center, with moral language repeated over and over.

What should be avoided, besides policy-wonk and pure-policy discourse? Again, the answer comes from Neuroscience 101. Offense not defense. Argue for your values. Frame all issues in terms of your values. Avoid their language, even in arguing against them. There is a reason that I wrote a book called, “Don’t Think of an Elephant!” Don’t list their arguments and argue against them using their language. It just activates their arguments in the brains of listeners.

Don’t move to the right in your discourse or action. That will just strengthen the conservative moral system in the brains of swing thinkers. Frame your arguments from your moral position.

In addition, beware of the same pollsters and focus group dialers who missed Scott Brown’s moral message to the swing thinkers in Massachusetts and claimed that Martha Coakley would win so handily that she could go on vacation. Just because a message plays well in focus group dialing doesn’t mean it will win elections.

Finally, Democrats need a truly effective communication system. They need unified morally-based framing of issues. They need to train spokespeople all over the country in using such framing and avoiding mistakes. They need to organize those spokespeople. And they need to book them, as conservatives do, on radio, TV, in civic and religious groups, in schools and universities. This is doable, but this late, it will take resolve from the top.

Winning this election will require the right policies and actions, but it will also require moral leadership with honest, morally-based messaging and a communications that will not just blog and knock on doors, but will be there in the districts with the crucial swing thinkers 24/7 day and night.

The Democrats cannot take their base for granted. Only moral leadership backed by actions and communicated effectively can excite the Obama base once more. Without that excitement, the Democrats will lose big.

See 5 Ways the Tea Party Agenda Screws Tea Party Supporters, AlterNet, September 3, 2010, by Adele M. Stan: "In their quest to save the country from liberals, Tea Partiers signed on to an agenda that will cause them untold pain while granting unlimited powers to corporations."

See After Saddam, America’s Next Fake Enemy: Deficits, Truthout, August 31, 2010, by Paul Krugman, Krugman & Co.

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Hurricane Earl now category 3; N.C. and Va. bracing, © The Los Angeles Times, September 2, 2010, by Jennifer L. Williams, Image of hurricane warnings and watches courtesy of the National Hurricane Center, excerpt quoted verbatim:

Hurricane Earl weakened slightly Thursday afternoon, downgrading from a category 4 to category 3 storm, as it moved toward affecting the Virginia and North Carolina coasts overnight Thursday and into Friday.

The outside edge of the storm is expected to reach the Virginia Peninsula between 2 a.m. and 2 p.m. Friday.

Earl was packing maximum sustained winds of 115 miles per hour, moving north at 18 miles per hour and located 185 miles south of Cape Hatteras, N.C., according to the National Hurricane Center’s update Thursday evening.

A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are in effect for north of the North Carolina-Virginia border to Cape Henlopen, Del.

A turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on Friday, according to the NHC’s forecast track. The center of Earl will pass near the Outer Banks of North Carolina Thursday night, and approach southeastern New England Friday night.

Gradual weakening is expected during that time, but the storm is large and will still be strong when it scrapes the east coast.

Weather effects include possible high winds, storm surge, rainfall and dangerous surf conditions with rip currents.

Weakened Hurricane Earl to Move Up East Coast

Bill Read, director of the National Hurricane Center, said the storm is following its projected path as forecast so far and shouldn’t change speed or track anytime Thursday.

Evacuations continued in the Outer Banks, and officials warned that time is short for Virginia and North Carolina residents to get ready at this point.

“We’re past planning, this is a day of action,” said Craig Fugate, administrator for the Federal Emergency Management Agency. “Folks need to be completing it in North Carolina, and others on the East Coast need to be focused on what they’re going to do when the storm hits, implement your plans and be ready to heed any additional evacuation orders or protective measures.”

Heavy rain and strong winds will move in overnight Thursday as Earl moves just offshore, according to WTKR NewsChannel 3 Meteorologist Myles Henderson. Expect tropical storm conditions across most of Hampton Roads, and hurricane conditions for parts of North Carolina, especially the Outer Banks.

Comment by Evans Liberal Politics owner Paul Evans: Hurricane Earl has cause over 150 million dollars in damage in the Caribbean. It is expected to move up the east coast offshore, with tropical storm warnings posted along the path. It is also expected to strike the Massachusetts coast with hurricane force strength. ~ Paul

See Island evacuations start as Earl nears East Coast, Associated Press on Yahoo News, September 2, 2010, by Mike Baker.

Watch East Coast Preps for Hurricane Earl, CBS News YouTube video, September 1, 2010 — 3:40.

BREAKING: Oil Rig Explodes in Gulf of Mexico

See BREAKING: Oil Rig Explodes in Gulf of Mexico – Fire Extinguished On Gulf Oil Platform, NPR, September 2, 2010, by NPR Staff and Wires:

Report by Evans Liberal Politics: BREAKING: West of the site of BP’s similar disaster five months ago, an oil rig called the Vermilion Oil Platform, owned by Mariner Energy, exploded today in the Gulf of Mexico. Afterward, a mile long oil sheen was reported to have spread over the ocean waters. The explosion led to a major fire on the rig, which has since been put out, and all 13 crew members successfully evacuated the rig and were rescued from the Gulf of Mexico waters. The cause is as of yet unknown and is under investigation. The oil from the explosion spread over the Gulf waters in a slick a mile long and 100 feet wide, according to initial Coast Guard reports, which were later denied.

National Public Radio reports:

Seven Coast Guard helicopters, two airplanes and three cutters were dispatched to the site of the Vermilion Oil Platform. It’s located about 200 miles west of a site where a BP oil rig exploded in April, spilling millions of gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico.

All 13 people aboard the rig were found floating in the water, Chief Petty Officer John Edwards of the Coast Guard said.

“These guys had the presence of mind, used their training to get into those gumby suits before they entered the water. It speaks volumes to safety training and the importance of it, because beyond getting off the rig, there’s all the hazards of the water, such as hypothermia and things of that nature,” Edwards said.

All were flown to a hospital in Houma, La., to be checked over.

Dan Shaw, the captain of the boat that made the rescue, said the blast was so sudden that the 13 people didn’t have time to get in a lifeboat. He said he found them huddled together, holding hands in the water, where they had been for two hours.

Shaw, 59, said the platform was in flames and there was a lot of smoke, but he did not see any oil in the water. He said the workers did not explain what might have caused the explosion but said there had been painters onboard.

The platform is a fixed petroleum platform that was in production at the time of the fire, according to a Homeland Security operational update obtained by The Associated Press.

The update said the platform was producing about 58,800 gallons of oil and 900,000 cubic feet of gas per day. The platform can store 4,200 gallons of oil.

Read more about the explosion and fire, here.

See BP Says Limits on Drilling Imperil Oil Spill Payouts, The New York Times, September 2, 2010, by Clifford Krauss and John M. Broder: "BP is warning Congress that if lawmakers pass legislation that bars the company from getting new offshore drilling permits, it may not have the money to pay for all the damages caused by its oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico."

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Discovery Channel hostage taker shot dead by police, Guardian.co.uk, September 1, 2010, by Adrian Gabbatt, photo of Jame Lee © WTOP.com, excerpt quoted verbatim:

Hostage crisis at Discovery Channel headquarters in Maryland ends with safe escape of all three hostages

Discovery Channel hostage taker shot dead by police. Link to video about this situation.

A man has been shot and killed by police after taking three people hostage in the headquarters of the Discovery Channel in the US.

Police said all the hostages had escaped safely following the siege, which began when a man entered the building in Silver Spring, Maryland, waving a handgun and with canisters strapped to his chest.

Officers spent several hours negotiating with the man, who was reported to be unhappy with the network’s programming schedule.

According to The Associate Press on Yahoo News, the hostage taker is a James J. Lee. “Lee had said he hated the company’s shows such as ‘Kate Plus 8,’ claiming they promoted population growth. Lee said the environmental programming did little to save the planet.

“Manger said police planned to negotiate as long as necessary, but acted when officers believed the hostages were trying to escape.

“‘We saw some hand movements from hostages,’ Manger said. ‘We’re watching this and trying to keep the focus of the guy we’re talking to. We didn’t know if they were up to something or what they were doing. We are surmising they were making a break for it.’

“Manger called the hostages and the officers heroes.

“Lee repeatedly said he was ‘ready to die,’ the police chief said.

“‘I believe he was not intending to come out of there alive,’ Manger said.

“It wasn’t the first time Lee, a homeless man who previously lived in Californian, had targeted Discovery’s headquarters. In February 2008, he was charged with disorderly conduct for staging a ‘Save the Planet Protest.’ Lee threw fistfuls of cash in the air and paid homeless people to carry signs condemning the network. Police found his pockets stuffed with more than $20,000, according to court records.

“Lee served two weeks in jail after his arrest during which doctors evaluated his competency to stand trial. County State’s Attorney John McCarthy said Lee was ordered to stay 500 feet away from Discovery headquarters as part of his probation, which ended two weeks ago.

“In court and on his website, he had demanded an end to Discovery Communications LLC’s shows such as TLC’s ‘Kate Plus 8′ and ’19 Kids and Counting.’ He said the network should air ‘programs encouraging human sterilization and infertility.’

“‘Humans are the most destructive, filthy, pollutive creatures around and are wrecking what’s left of the planet with their false morals and breeding cultures,’ Lee wrote in a bitter manifesto on his website.

“Lee, 43, also objected to Discovery’s environmental programming. He wrote in 2008 that a show he called ‘Planet Green’ was ‘about more PRODUCTS to make MONEY, not actual solutions.’

“Police said he burst into the building about 1 p.m. and took hostages in the lobby. He had four crude explosive devices strapped to him. Two of them were green propane cylinders with pipes attached that contained shotgun shells. The other two were pipe bombs.

“One of the devices detonated when police shot him, Manger said. Authorities later sent in a robot to disarm a device on the gunman’s body.”

Montgomery County Police Chief, Thomas Manger, said an explosive device detonated on the gunman’s body when they shot him, and they were working to determine whether two boxes and two backpacks he also had with him were explosives.

The man, (likely James J. Lee), who is yet to be formally identified, entered the building at around 1pm local time.

Manger said officers were monitoring Lee on building security cameras and tactical officers moved in when they saw him pull out the handgun and point it at one of the hostages.

Police believe the 1,900 people who work in the building were able to get out safely.

…SNIP….

Visitors to Lee’s MySpace profile were invited to see “The idea I had to save the planet” by visiting a website apparently set up by the 43-year-old called savetheplanetprotest.com. It was unclear whether the length posting on the website was recent, but it railed against Discovery Communications at length, calling on it to broadcast “programs encouraging human sterilization and infertility”.

Discovery Communications operates cable and satellite networks in the US and elsewhere, including the Discovery Channel, TLC and Animal Planet.

Lee has a lengthy history of protesting against the Discovery Channel.

See Hostages Showed ‘Tremendous Courage’, WTOP.com, September 2, 2010.

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The Stock Market Rally Versus the World’s Economic Fundamentals, Robert Reich.org, August 1, 2010, by Robert Reich, used with permission, quoted verbatim:

What passes for business reporting in the United States is too often a series of breathless reports about the stock market. When the Dow rises precipitously, as it did today (Wednesday), the business press predicts an end to the Great Recession. When the stock market plummets, as it did last week, the Great Recession is said to be worsening.

Pay no attention. The stock market has as much to do with the real economy as the weather has to do with geology. Day by day there’s no relationship at all. Over time, weather and geology interact but the results aren’t evident for many years. The biggest impact of the weather is on peoples’ moods, as are the daily ups and downs of the market.

The real economy is jobs and paychecks, what people buy and what they sell. And the real economy — even viewed from a worldwide perspective — is as precarious as ever, perhaps more so.

Today’s rally was triggered by news that one of China’s official measures of its growth – its Purchasing Managers Index – rose. The index had been in decline for three straight months.

Why should an obscure measurement on the other side of the world cause stock markets in New York, London, and Frankfurt to rally? Because China is so large and its needs seemingly limitless that its growth has been about the only reliable source of global demand.

Many big American companies have been showing profits because they’re doing ever more business in China while cutting payrolls at home. American consumers aren’t buying much of anything because they’ve lost their jobs or are worried about losing them, and are still trying to get out from under a huge debt load (the latest figures show more consumer debt delinquent now than last year and a surge in personal bankruptcies). The U.S. housing market is growing worse, auto and retail sales are dropping, and the ranks of the jobless continue to swell.

Europe is in almost as much a mess. The problem there isn’t just or even mainly that Greece and other nations on the “periphery” have too much public debt. A bigger problem is European consumers aren’t buying nearly enough to generate more jobs. Unemployment remains high, and the trend is bad. Manufacturing growth there has slowed to its weakest pace in six months. Yet bizarrely, Europe’s large economies – Britain, Germany, and France – are paring back their public budgets. It’s exactly the wrong time, and a recipe for disaster.

Germany’s so-called “job miracle” (as Chancellor Angela Merkel calls it) is more mirage than miracle. Most of the gains in employment there have come from part-time jobs, often at low pay. Average annual net income per German employee continues to drop. This explains why domestic demand there is so sluggish and why Germany is desperately dependent on its exports of machinery and manufacturing components to Asia, especially China.

Meanwhile, Japan, now the world’s third-largest economy, is a basket case. Japanese consumers aren’t buying much of anything, and why would they? The country is still in the grip of a deflationary cycle that shows no end. Japanese consumers reason if they can buy it cheaper next week there’s no reason to buy now. Basically the only thing keeping Japan’s economy going are its exports of cars and electronic components to China.

Australia is booming, but look closely and you see the same buyer. Australia is making a boatload of money selling its minerals and raw materials to China (Australia is fast becoming one big Chinese mine shaft). The Brazilian economy is soaring. Why? Exports of wheat and cattle to China. Middle East oil producers are getting richer. Why? China’s insatiable thirst for oil.

Elsewhere around the globe the picture is as uncertain. Much of Pakistan is under water. Much of the rest of the Middle East is under tyrannical or corrupt regimes. Russia has suffered such a dry spell it’s hoarding wheat. Despite its wealthy few, India’s masses are still terribly poor.

The stock market could plunge tomorrow or the next day because the world’s economic fundamentals are so precarious.

The global economy cannot be sustained by one big, voracious nation – especially one that’s suffering bouts of civil unrest, actively repressing dissent, suffocating under a blanket of pollution and coping with other environmental hazards, and whose biggest companies are run by the state.

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Obama Should Feel ‘Uncomfortable’ That Conservatives Are Co-opting Gay Rights Issues: Top Dem, September 1, 2010, by Sam Stein, used with permission, quoted verbatim:

The notion that the gay rights community would abandon the Obama White House over its unwillingness to fully embrace their legislative priorities may seem absurd to the casual political observer. But the recent embrace of same-sex marriage by prominent conservatives, most notably former RNC Chair Ken Mehlman, has some Democratic operatives concerned.

On Monday, former McCain campaign manager Steve Schmidt argued that there was a “strong conservative case to be made in favor of gay marriage” and that more and more Republicans are dropping their opposition to the cause. Shortly thereafter, a prominent Democratic consultant got in touch with the Huffington Post to make the case that the Obama administration risks losing the gay rights community (or at least depressing their votes) with its tepid embrace of their priorities.

“I think they have been put in a tough place by these conservatives and they should be,” the consultant said. “There are a whole group of people who are to the left of them on gay rights. And they are Republicans. It should make them feel uncomfortable.”

LBGT voters are not, of course, monolithic. And on a host of other fronts, they are repulsed by the GOP’s policies. Talk about abandoning Obama and the Democrats, in some respects, has been driven more by a desire to scare the party into action than sincere intent to vote Republican.

But that doesn’t mean it’s impossible for an electoral shift to take place or that there aren’t those in the GOP who welcome siphoning off the LBGT vote. Though hardly a barometer for the Republican Party’s collective psyche, John McCain’s daughter, Meghan, made overtures along these lines on Tuesday night.

“We get the bad rap as Republicans being against gay marriage,” she told Fox News. “[Obama] isn’t doing anything for the gay community.”

Indeed, even in the Democratic tent there is some marvel, concern and even a twinge of envy at the changes taking place within the GOP.

“There has always been this libertarian segment of the Republican Party who thinks the government ought to get out of your life, and that group has, for various reasons, become more emboldened,” said Steve Emeldorf, an aide to former House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, who is fundraising with Mehlman in support of same-sex marriage. “Maybe ten years ago they were scared of this issue, but as it becomes more acceptable the libertarians are like, yeah, this is our philosophy.”

“You had the most conservative vice president in the history of the world [Dick Cheney] with a lesbian daughter who over the last couple years has signaled he is for gay rights and marriage,” Elmendorf added. “And if you have this guy who is the icon of the right wing there… It sort of snowballs.”

See Omaha Paper to Print Same-Sex Wedding Announcements, The New York Times, August 31, 2010, by Jeremy W. Peters.

See What Ken Mehlman Can Learn About Coming Out, The Huffington Post, August 26, 2010, by Sam Stein, excerpt quoted verbatim:

Former RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman’s recent but not wholly unexpected admission that he is gay has been greeted with mixed reactions within the gay rights movement.

While rights advocates have welcomed the emergence of a prominent Republican to the cause (especially one with a Rolodex of big donor contacts), an equally common refrain is that Mehlman missed the moment when his voice was most needed. There must be, they stress, some penance for his involvement with the anti-gay marriage initiatives launched by the Republican Party he ran.

“I am wiling to give Ken the benefit of the doubt that he went through a long process which resulted, only recently, in feeling comfortable enough to share,” said Hilary Rosen, a prominent Democratic consultant who is gay. “But he perpetrated some real harm on LGBT Americans and I think he must atone for those sins. Is that a double standard for him than for someone else coming out, you bet. But his powerful position and homophobic activities (or acquiescence when others acted) in the Republican Party raises the bar pretty high for how he goes forward in his new life.”

Same-Sex Marriage Becoming Conservative Cause

See Steve Schmidt, Former McCain Campaign Chief, On Mehlman Fundraiser: Same-Sex Marriage Becoming Conservative Cause, The Huffington Post, August 31, 2010, by Sam Stein, excerpt quoted verbatim:

A major same-sex marriage fundraiser hosted by former RNC chairman Ken Mehlman and other Republicans provides one of the sharpest illustrations of how gay rights is becoming a cause among more elite, establishment members of the GOP.

In addition to Mehlman, who recently announced that he was gay, the list of attendees includes several surprises, such as Ben Ginsburg, one of the Republican Party’s top lawyers, and Henry Kravis and Paul Singer, two of the biggest donors to the GOP. According to one gay-rights activist involved in similar efforts, the fundraising pool goes even deeper.

“There is a strong conservative case to be made in favor of gay marriage,” former McCain campaign manager and fellow same-sex marriage fundraiser Steve Schmidt told the Huffington Post on Tuesday. “Marriage is an institution that strengthens and stabilizes society. It is an institution that has the capacity to bring profound joy and happiness to people and it is a matter of equality and keeping faith of one of the charters of the nation, the right to live your life.

“More and more conservatives are saying that opposition to gay marriage would not be a litmus test for membership in the GOP,” Schmidt added. “And more conservatives are making the case that no more do you want big government conservatives in the bedroom than big government liberals telling you how to live your life.”

LGBT GOP Donors Coming Out of the Woodwork

See Henry Kravis Among New Co-Hosts of Ken Mehlman After Fundraiser, TowelRoad, August 31, 2010, by Andy Towle, excerpt quoted verbatim:

A new invitation in circulation for the September 22nd American Foundation for Equal Rights (AFER) fundraiser hosted by Ken Mehlman, Peter Thiel, and Paul Singer reveals an expanded co-host list. I posted the original invite on August 25, the day former RNC Chair Ken Mehlman came out of the closet publicly. AFER is the organization employing Ted Olson and David Boies as lead attorneys in Perry v. Schwarzenegger, the federal challenge to Proposition 8.

New to this revised invitation (see below) are Republican financier and fundraiser (and Mehlman employer) Henry Kravis (right), Michael Lebovitz, Amy and Bruce Mehlman, Garrett Moran, Mary Kathryn and Alex Navab, Amy and Scott Nuttall, and AFER Board President Chad Griffin.

In related news, Gay City News reporter Duncan Osborne and the NYT take a look at some of the donations made by hedge fund manager Paul Singer, who is hosting the event at his NYC home. Osborne makes note of Singer’s donations of $100,000 to Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell and $25,000 to attorney general Ken Cuccinelli, both of whom have been in the news this year for pushing aggressive discriminatory measures in that state.

….SNIP….

The NYT notes, in a recent article, that Singer has also given large amounts to LGBT causes: “…very quietly, Mr. Singer has…given significant sums to personal causes that run counter to the agenda of many conservatives. With no public disclosure, Mr. Singer has given more than $4.2 million to groups supporting gay rights and same-sex marriage, like the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force Action Fund, associates said. ‘Several of Paul’s family and friends are gay activists, and he has learned a lot from their work over the years,’ said Myron Kaplan, a longtime friend and lawyer for Mr. Singer. ‘He supports the work of these groups. He also believes the Republican Party is a big tent, and he respects the different perspectives within the party on this issue.’”

Some Hopefully Appropriate Music
For This Whole LGBT Social Scene

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Obama Announces End to Iraq Combat Mission in Oval Office Address, CNN, August 31, 2010, by CNN Daily Intel, excerpt quoted verbatim:

“The United States has paid a huge price to put the future of Iraq in the hands of its people,” the president said in his Oval Office speech Tuesday night, only the second time he has addressed the nation from the (newly redecorated) Oval Office. Obama formally announced the end of the U.S. combat role in the country, declaring that Operation Iraqi Freedom is “over” and it is time to ”turn the page.” About 50,000 troops will remain in Iraq, but the president said in the address that all U.S. troops will leave by the end of next year.Considering many of Obama’s previous speeches have been praised as passionate and stirring, this one was noticeably subdued, the president providing a status report in an almost professorial manner. Chatter before the speech focused on how Obama would refer to his predecessor’s role in beginning the war. While he did not specifically mention former president George W. Bush’s 2007 “surge” in troops, Obama avoided any criticism of how Bush launched the war … and he actually lauded him.

“It’s well known that he and I disagreed about the war from its outset. Yet no one could doubt President Bush’s support for our troops, or his love of country and commitment to our security. As I have said, there were patriots who supported this war, and patriots who opposed it. And all of us are united in appreciation for our servicemen and women, and our hope for Iraq’s future.”

The president briefly mentioned the conflict in Afghanistan, noting that Al Qaeda “continues to plot against us.” He said the removal of troops in Iraq will mean additional resources for the effort in Afghanistan, though he pledged that those troops, too, will be removed from Afghanistan by the end of next year. The final act of the speech somewhat awkwardly transitioned into a discussion of the economy, as Obama claimed the country’s “most urgent task is to restore our economy” and add jobs.

Read the rest of the story, here.

An End to Combat Missions In Iraq

See Obama Declares an End to Combat Mission in Iraq, The New York Times, August 31, 2010, by Helene Cooper and Sheryl Gay Stolberg, excerpt quoted verbatim:

In a prime-time address from the Oval Office, Mr. Obama balanced praise for the troops who fought and died in Iraq with his conviction that getting into the conflict had been a mistake in the first place. But he also used the moment to emphasize that he sees his primary job as addressing the weak economy and other domestic issues — and to make clear that he intends to begin disengaging from the war in Afghanistan next summer.

“We have sent our young men and women to make enormous sacrifices in Iraq, and spent vast resources abroad at a time of tight budgets at home,” Mr. Obama said. “Through this remarkable chapter in the history of the United States and Iraq, we have met our responsibility. Now, it’s time to turn the page.”

Seeking to temper partisan feelings over the war on a day when Republicans pointed out that Mr. Obama had opposed the troop surge generally credited with helping to bring Iraq a measure of stability, the president offered some praise for his predecessor, George W. Bush. Mr. Obama acknowledged their disagreement over Iraq but said that no one could doubt Mr. Bush’s “support for our troops, or his love of country and commitment to our security.”

Mr. Obama spoke for about 18 minutes, saying that violence would continue in Iraq and that the United States would continue to play a key role in nurturing a stable democracy there. ….

Turn the page on Mister Bush? Never

See Turn the page on Mister Bush? Never, Daily Kos, August 31, 2010, by Meteor Blades, excerpt quoted verbatim:

I’m a big believer in mercy and forgiveness. And second chances. Had people in my life failed to forgive, chosen to be merciless, rejected the idea that those who’ve gone astray can improve themselves and make amends, there’s every likelihood I’d have spent several decades in the slam or died there. Luckily, some people reached out to me, gave me a second chance, helped me rescue myself. I’ve tried to follow their lead for a lot of years.

So I understand why President Obama underscored his call to “turn the page” regarding Iraq tonight by revealing that he had phoned President Bush. “It’s well known that he and I disagreed about the war from its outset,” Obama said. “Yet no one could doubt President Bush’s support for our troops, or his love of country and commitment to our security.”

I’d like to be able to agree. Really, I would.

However, unlike President Obama, I could and did and do doubt Bush’s support for the troops, love of country and commitment to our security. And I can wrest no mercy from the bitterness and rage that I feel every time I remember what he and the pack of thugs around him accomplished for the troops, the country and our security.

I cannot and will not turn the page until George W. Bush, Dick Cheney and the others in that cabal of scorpions are brought to justice and make amends for Iraq. Which means never. No apology, much less time in the slam. I’ll go to my grave knowing Bush and the rest got away with it. In a couple of months, Bush hopes hundreds of thousands of Americans will be turning the pages of his memoir (called Decision Points– Amazon purchase page, to be released November 9, 2010, available for preorder, hardcover, $18.), a book certain to add to the plethora of lies and pathetic, murderous rationalizations with which we became so familiar during the last seven years of his presidency.

See War Is Over — for Some, The New York Times, August 31, 2010, by Maurice Decaul.

UPDATE & Flashback: See Reid: Iraq War lost, U.S. can’t win, MSNBC Politics, April 20, 2007, by Associated Press.

Obama Address: War in Iraq is Over

"Obama: The End of the Combat Mission in Iraq:" President Obama, speaking from a newly redecorated Oval Office, announces an end to combat operations in Iraq and speaks of the need to honor our servicemen and also improve the economy. Watch the video of the speech, here — 17:56

Evans Liberal Politics, September 1, 2010, by my friend Elizabeth:

A Message to Young People

You know something isn’t right. You’re not dumb

Today, Fall 2010— Many people are having a hard time. More than 10% of Americans are on food stamps. Around 17% of people are unemployed or are only working part-time.  And ever since February 2009, 10,000 people have lost their homes each day. I know. It’s so sad.

Q: Why is our economy so bad?

A: There are 4 major reasons we are in such bad shape. I want you to understand these reasons. I am 50. You are younger. This is your country too. Sadly, this will be your mess to clean up.  You’ll be around a lot longer than me…. Unless… hey!? Where is that fountain of youth?!